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Next To You -Care for nothingAugust 31 无知者无为对于陌生的世界,最好的方式,就是让它自由生长。
以固有的观念和思维试图去看规范处理未和的事物,不仅仅可笑,更是危险。没有明白问题的所在,就开始提出解决方案,不见整体的大小,就开始丈量,我们常有这样的错误而不自知。
“就像在云层中观察仪表的飞行员一样,我们或许会发现自己是上下颠倒的。”,谁说不是呢?
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开放心态为何重要?
作者:美国法学教授詹姆士•博伊尔(James Boyle) 2006年8月31日 星期四 过去15年,一批学者最终说服经济学家,让他们相信非经济学家认为显而易见的一件事:“行为经济学”显示,人们不是像经济学原理所预测的那样采取行动。 然而,这并不证明大众智慧就胜过学术智慧。偏离“理性行为”,并非像你可能想象的那样,是人类动机的普遍产物。这里有一些模式。例如,面对损失,我们就会排斥风险——我们倾向于高估损失几率,而低估盈利几率。对待问题,我们依赖试探法(heuristics),但即便与事实矛盾,我们仍会固执己见。有一些模式为人所喜爱;例如,除美国共和党人和受过经济学教育的人以外,所有人估计都会有对于平等的“非理性”关切。但是,多数模式只不过是认知偏见的反映。我们可以利用这些偏见,就像那些向我们兜售非理性的昂贵消费品保修服务的人那样。或者,我们可以纠正这些偏见,就像受过训练的飞行员那样:在飞越厚重云层的时候,要依靠仪表而不是自己错误的感知。
对知识产权和互联网的研究让我相信,我们还存在另一种认知偏见,即对开放的排斥。我们倾向于低估开放系统、开放网络和非专利产品的重要性、生存能力和生产力。用以下问题对自己做一个测试。在每道问题中,时间都是1991年,而我拿掉了你对过去15年的所有认识。
你必须设计一个全球计算机网络。一组科学家描述了一个完全开放的系统——开放的协议和系统,任何人都能与之连接,向全球提供信息或产品。另一组人(学者、商人和政界人士)指出了其中的问题:任何人都能与之连接。他们可能做任何事。会出现色情、盗版、病毒和垃圾邮件。恐怖分子可能上传赞美自己的视频。你激进的邻居可能与纽约时报(New York Times)争相评述伊拉克战争。最好是有一个管理完善的系统:建立网站需要得到官方的批准;仅有少数行为得到许可;我们大多数人只是信息的接受者;垃圾邮件、病毒、盗版(以及创新和匿名言论)不可能出现。你会选择哪一个?
想象一种任何人都能复制和改写的软件,创建这一软件的授权要求,后来的程序员按照同样的条款提供自己的软件。想象一下全球为数众多的程序员纷纷将自己的创造,贡献给一个“集体创作”。这种听上去像无政府主义的生产方法,在经济上可行吗?它能成功地与那些受法律和技术双重保护,生产专有、封闭代码,等级森严的企业展开竞争吗?
给你自己分派一项撰写有史以来最伟大参考著作的任务。它必须无所不包,从美国北卡罗莱纳州罗利最美味的泰国食物,到泰国稻米的年产量,从观赏蓝鲸的最佳地点到“蓝狗联盟”(Blue Dog Coalition)的历史等等。你会创建一个由有偿专家和各类编辑组成的庞大组织,创作受到版权和商标保护的鸿篇巨制,还是等待爱好者、科学家和自告奋勇的百科全书编纂者来创作、由搜索引擎来整理一本信息大全呢?我知道自己在1991年会选择哪种方式。但我也清楚,自己上一次查询百科全书的时间是在1998年。
这不是说开放总是对的,而是我们需要在开放与封闭、专有与免费之间取得平衡,我们在系统层面有可能把平衡搞错。原因部分在于,我们仍然不了解存在于网络中的那种财产。我们的多数经历都是与有形财产打交道,那些如果不能排除外来者就可能遭到觊觎的领域。对于那种财产,约束更有道理。我们仍然不能理解那种因过度使用而枯竭的财产(例如软件),那种他人用得越多,对我们就越有价值的财产(例如通信标准)。因此,威胁是不同的,但共享带来的机遇也有差别。我们的直觉、政策和业务模式,对这两方面都没有认识清楚。就像在重力环境下成长起来的宇航员一样,我们的本能反应不适合自由坠落。
我上面的问题与万维网(World Wide Web)有关——万维网去年迎来了15岁的生日。我们今天会创建它吗?1991年时,你可能会嘲笑万维网,嘲笑开放源代码软件,嘲笑从谷歌(Google)上获取信息。直觉上,控制和所有权似乎是正确的做法。你对当今的讨论有何感想?我们是应该保留“网络中立”(net neutrality)和开放性,还是应该赋予网络所有者更大控制权?我们是否应该为广播公司和数据库所有者设立新的权利?行为经济学家的下一个研究项目,应该是研究我们对产权、控制和网络的认知结构。就像在云层中观察仪表的飞行员一样,我们或许会发现自己是上下颠倒的。
本文作者是杜克法学院(Duke Law School)法学教授,公众域研究中心(Center for the Study of the Public Domain)创始人之一,创作共用(Creative Commons)董事会成员。 August 28 分配之辩:垄断与奢华生活正如球队会给予明星球员,也许会很不羁,更高额的报酬一样,垄断行业员工收入远超社会平均收入的现象其实并不仅仅是由于垄断企业能攫取高额垄断利润这么简单。
明星球员能获得更高额的报酬,似成公识。然而,其与普通球员甚至是优秀球员的巨大收入差距,却不是那么容易解释。仅仅从衡量具体比赛的贡献度的来看,过高的差距显然是不合理的,一场或多场比赛,英雄固然重要,但没有相匹配的高质团队,却是万万不能。
但如果从其明星效应带来的附加值来看,一切又是那么顺理成章。更高的收入,会带来别的想加入球队的明星球员的收入预期,吸附更优秀的球员,并鼓励有成为明星球员潜质的优秀球员更加敬业,无论是外部还是内部,都能形成良好的长效机制,奠定球队取得好成绩的基础,从而带来俱乐部更丰厚的利润。更重要的,明星球员还能充分带动媒体的关注,并能成为球队的一个象征和群情众爱的载体,有一个良好的示范作用。这是一个良性的循环。
把社会比诸于球队,垄断企业比诸于明星球员。不容否认,由于官方非官方的垄断条件,某些行业能获得更高额的垄断利润,因此能为其高额员工收入买单。然而,垄断行业在另一方面,也是高贡献度,高绩效的代名词,在其与国民经济一起成长的各个时期,它们为国家创造了巨额的财政收入,广泛解决了就业。高收入一方面是对其员工社会贡献度的肯定,另一方面,也是容量被人忽略的方面,却是对社会分配及员工薪酬的示范作用。
高绩效,不一定会带来高工资,然而,给予高贡献度和高绩效超越同侪的工资,却能给社会一种良好的激励和正确的预期,这也是推动社会迅速向前发展,打破低水平增长均势的重要一环。
如何衡量高额收入的合理性与公平性,除了空喊差距与简单地考量公平,显然还要进行更深入的思考。
刚好看到一篇好报道,也摘贴如下:
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员工何时能过奢华生活
文/仲大军 21世纪经济报道第512期 2006-8-26
不久前,报刊披露某电力企业一抄表工的年收入达到10万元,舆论一致谴责这简直是大逆不道。然而舆论对这样一条消息却默不作声:联想公司总裁杨元庆2005财年的年薪为2175万港元!这一数字是这个抄表工人的217倍!
舆论质疑该名工人高收入的主要原因是,这个工人是国企的职工,而这是个带有行业垄断性质的企业。对于行业垄断利润、垄断福利我们当然应该反对,但另一个问题也需要反思——为什么国有企业能给一名普通工人10万元的工资,而一些私营企业却发不出来?是因为企业效益不好,利润率低吗? 某山西私营煤炭企业,工人每月七八百元,但一百多万元一辆的进口高级轿车,老板一买就是十几辆。如果说效益不好,一些民营企业的大老板怎么能买得起上千万元一辆的豪华轿车、几千万元一栋的高级豪宅?假如把老板奢侈消费的钱拿来给工人们发工资,工人们的工资能那么少吗? 在人们的潜意识里,好像只有垄断企业才有暴利,其实,很多竞争性企业也可以赚大钱,也可以有暴利。但在那些企业里,即使是赚着了钱,大部分利润也流不到普通员工手里。 所以,先不要对年薪10万元大惊小怪,实际上真正需要做的是向10万元的工资水平看齐。 有报道说,目前12家中央企业的人均人工成本在6-7万元之间,是全国平均工资水平的3-4倍。于是,央企成了被舆论批评的对象。人工成本6-7万元,平均月收入也就是五千多元,如果是全国工资水平3.5倍的话,那么全国平均工资水平月收入为1400元。这一收入水平对于我国广大的工薪者来说,高还是低?让我们从国民生产总值(GDP)角度来衡量。 西方发达国家的工资收入一般都占GDP的50%以上,高的达到60%。目前,我国城镇工资收入者的总人口大约有2.5亿人,以每人每年1.7万元的工资水平计算,总的工资收入约为4.3万亿元,约占2006年GDP20万亿元的21%。我国的工资收入在GDP的比重中如此低,大多数国民收入都被企业和政府拿走,以致老板有钱大肆挥霍,政府有钱盖豪华办公大楼,民众工资收入却一直维持在比较低的水平。 如果使全国的工资收入达到占GDP的35%,以2006年计算,就是拿出7万亿来进行分配,2.5亿工资收入者的年收入水平将达到2.8万元。如果将GDP的40%那来进行分配,那么工薪者的年工资水平将达到3.2万元。 但由于在收入分配中,资本拥有者或经营管理者拿得多,员工拿得少,真正落到普通职工手中的工资额会变得很少。加上不同行业的差异,整个工资收入者的收入水平便会出现巨大的落差。 当前我国经济的一个重要现象是企业利润正在被资本所有者和财政大量拿走,被高管瓜分。尽管经济在增长在发展,但好处大都被精英们占了,普通员工们永远都处在一副饿不死也阔不了的生存状态。这导致处于社会低层的民众很难充分享受到经济发展的成果。因此,在声讨垄断的同时,还应进行有关分配公允与否的讨论。 今年底,我国的财政收入将达到4万亿元,占GDP的20%,扣去工资收入和财政收入,剩下的GDP就是企业收入,也就是资本收入。我国的GDP当中,资本收益约占40%,大大高过劳动工资收入。 西方经济学泰斗亚当·斯密说过:"哪里有巨大的财富,哪里就有巨大的不平等。有一个巨富的人,同时至少必有500个穷人。少数人的富有,必定是以多数人的贫困为前提。" 当然,影响工资收入的重要原因还有财政税收。我国的财政收入占GDP的比例自1990年代中期以来持续上升,已从1990年代初的12%上升到20%多,这在一定程度上说明了政府对国民财富的控制程度以及政府规模的庞大程度。然而,国家财政收入是否可以无限制扩张?政府成本是否没有一个基本额度?这是中国改革这么多年来一直未解决的大问题。 因此,改变我国的国民财富收入分配格局,是解决整个工薪阶层收入的最根本问题。只有改变资本收入和劳动收入严重不平衡的现实,我国整个工资水平才会得以提高。劳动收入如果不能超过资本收入,中国将成为财富高度集中在国家和少数私人手中的国家,这样的社会将很难达到共同富裕。 所以,收入10万元,将不仅是一个经济目标,更是一个政治目标。国有大企业率先进入这一水平,既有不合理性,也有一定的合理性。 (作者系北京大军经济观察研究中心主任) August 22 婚姻制度的迷思婚姻制度的可能 「男女結婚,圖的就是長期的合作和保障。」 這樣的斷言會被批評為冷酷無情吧,但想深一層卻又有一定的道理。女性的最厲害的武器往往就是青春,而男性事業發展往往晚年才有所成(請勿霸權思維上身,僅為事實判斷),為防止「陳世美再現」,似乎婚姻作為契約的保障是必須的。而有一些關於婚姻制度的設計,諸如離婚後男方要給瞻養費,就是為那些不守契約的人提高其毀約的代價──結婚可不是說笑的,是要守約的。 現代社會的遲婚現象往往就是人們對「結婚代價」的理性計算(並不排除惰感的計算)後的博奕結果。如果離婚的代價是很高的,選擇不結婚的情侶自然會增多;反之如果結婚是一件很容易的事,那麼人們的擇偶標準將會更嚴謹,「有責任心」、「事業有成」等條件將大大升值;而「浪漫」、「風度」、「靚仔」等條件將會貶值。 同時,我們也可以想像一夫一妻制並不是必然的,可以有一夫多妻、一妻多夫、甚至是多妻多夫的組合。這些組合不是建基於「愛的多少」,往往是由於社會文化經濟的考慮而有不同的方案。試想像一個男女比例為1:5的地方,如果我們規定一夫一妻制,將會出現怎麼樣的結果?當然會有很多的一夫一妻,同時會有極多的婚外情。那立法打擊婚外情吧,應付的辦法就是索性不結婚好了。改變婚姻法使得婚姻變得神聖吧,那麼同居、一夜情等等「替補方案」將會大量出現,總之變的只是方式,動不動以道德之名去斥責別人生活不檢點,這樣的態度才真的要檢點一下。 一夫一妻制被賦予神聖的任務,某程度上只是男女比例相若、維持社會穩定所營造出來的某種社會道德,更重要的一點,是愛的表達形式是否一定要是一夫一妻的模式呢? 有好一些頗有趣的想法,節錄自<太平洋島嶼的智慧> 「頑固維護女貞的姑娘倍受男人的歧視。」 「性關係與婚姻之間並無必然關係,婚姻只是宣告以往性關係的告一段落。」
不過我從未走到另一個的極端,認為人對愛情的價值觀是相對的。也許我應該好好定義一下什麼是價值相對才是。所謂價值相對也者,就是一個人會認為其他價值體系的價值觀對他而言亦是無分高下的。比方說,香港的婚姻制度是一夫一妻,而太平洋某些島嶼是一夫多妻,由此結論說我們對婚姻的價值觀是相對的,兩者是無分高下的,我們不應該把自己的價值觀加諸到他們的身上......可是,這是一件不可能的事,我們會容忍(tolerate)和尊重別人的價值。基於我們對價值多元的尊重,我們認為自己才是自己人生的最佳評價者;但這絕不等如我們不會為各種的價值排序。以為價值觀相對於文化歷史,和人的價值觀很大程度上是文化歷史的產物,是兩組不同的命題──相對無所謂高低價值,但不同人的價值觀卻可以改變現存的歷史文化,為一互動的關係,並不需要認定人的價值觀是不能改變,甚至是不由自主早被決定了的。婚姻的不同形式,和文化/價值相對的觀念可說是完全無關,「相對」一詞的演繹,只是人們思考不嚴密的結果。 愛情是融化溝通壁壘的最佳溶劑,性則是最佳表達愛情的儀式,至於婚姻,有人可能不同意,但往往是經濟+社會+文化角力之下的契約論產物吧。 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 我们看北欧的设计有一种理性、秩序、功能至上的特点,但同时是自由、自然的,其实这种感觉,贯穿在整个北欧的制度之中。比如婚姻。 目前北欧五国法律规定:未婚同居的男女和已婚夫妇一样,享有完全平等的社会地位,而且都要缴纳相关的税,其子女也都享有同等的福利待遇。如果同居的男女要分离,同居期间的房地产和家庭用品等由双方平分。与此同时,五国政府给新做父母者(不论结婚与否)都给予慷慨的经济援助:12个月的产后休假,期间工资发放90%。此外,父亲也能享受6个月的“产假”,女方从怀孕到分娩期间的一切医疗全部免费。每个孩子每年可获得1900美元到2500美元不等的补助,第二胎的还可再增加18%,以后每多生一个,就多一倍的补助。同时北欧国家把同居者所生育的子女称之为“未婚后儿童”,绝口不提“私生子”或“无合法身份子女”等字眼。什么单亲母亲、单亲父亲之类,在这里太正常了。 因此,现在很多北欧人只同居,不结婚。因为同居常见且合法,结婚少,因此北欧五国的离婚率大为减少。到北欧人家里做客,如事先不清楚男女主人的关系,还是直呼其名为好,因为北欧很多家庭属同居关系,未婚同居率在世界上最高。 关于未婚同居,北欧流传着一些广为人知的笑话。冰岛总统奥拉维尔·格里姆松(Olafur R.Grimsson)的妻子古兹隆·卡特琳·索尔伯格多蒂尔1998年过世不久,他便在国家电视台公开宣布,他又重坠爱河并开始同居生活,他的犹太裔英国女友多丽特公开住进了冰岛总统府,并陪同他出访世界各国,冰岛人对此的反应就像“每天喝咖啡一样自然”。早在2000年,这对恋人即订婚并宣布最晚年底成亲,而他们迟迟“光打雷不下雨”,迫使瑞典媒体发起“催婚运动”,催促为国体计,请总统先生早结良缘。 而现年62岁的芬兰现任总统哈洛宁顺利当选为芬兰第一位女总统后,芬兰人面对一项历史难题:如何称呼与总统未婚同居15载的阿拉亚尔维。为此芬兰公民、律师和各大媒体开展起全国范围的大讨论。为了尽快结束讨论,总统办公厅发出通报,建议称“丈夫”,但许多人却对此不同意。芬兰一家电视台进行了一项调查:只有25%的人同意用“丈夫”这个称呼,约50%的人主张称“生活伴侣”,还有人建议用“男人”一词:哈洛宁和她的男人阿拉亚尔维。最后哈洛宁和阿拉亚尔维只好登记结婚,平息了这场历时半年沸沸扬扬的讨论。 未婚的丹麦女文化大臣怀着6个月身孕会见外国记者代表团;挪威王位合法继承人爱上了单身妈妈,并成为欧洲第一个公开与女友未婚同居的王子……北欧的优厚福利令已婚者悔不当初。优厚福利使得青年男女感到毫无结婚的必要,甚至还使很多已经结婚的男女感到后悔,这在冰岛体现得尤为突出,冰岛政府对同居者的住房补贴费用及其子女入托和读书的补贴费用大大超过那些已婚男女和他们的子女。因此,眼下不少已婚夫妇为了获得丰厚的福利待遇,索性分居或离婚,这样既可以增加收入,又可以改善生活。目前瑞典和冰岛有一半的儿童是未婚母亲所生,芬兰、挪威、丹麦略低一些。 钱钟书说婚姻像“围城”,结婚以前都想进城,进去以后又都想出城。显然,北欧人没有这个烦恼。 ----------------------------------------------------------------- August 21 任正非旧文:北国之春我曾数百次听过《北国之春》,每一次都热泪盈眶,都为其朴实无华的歌词所震撼。《北国之春》原作者的创作之意是歌颂创业者和奋斗者的,而不是当今青年人误认为的一首情歌。 在樱花盛开春光明媚的时节,我们踏上了日本的国土。此次东瀛之行,我们不是来感受异国春天的气息,欣赏漫山遍野的樱花,而是为了来学习度过冬天的经验。 北国之春总会来临 一踏上日本国土,给我的第一印象还是与十年前一样宁静、祥和、清洁、富裕与舒适。从偏远的农村,到繁华的大城市,街道还是那样整洁,所到之处还是那样井然有序;人还是那样慈祥、和善、彬彬有礼,脚步还是那样匆匆;从拉面店的服务员,到乡村小旅馆的老太太,从大公司的上班族,到……所有人都这么平和、乐观和敬业,他们是如此地珍惜自己的工作,如此地珍惜为他人服务的机会,工作似乎是他们最高的享受,没有任何躁动、不满与怨气。在我看来,日本仍然是十年前的日本,日本人还是十年前的日本人。 但谁能想到,这十年间日本经受了战后最严寒和最漫长的冬天。正因为现在的所见所闻,是建立在这么长时间的低增长时期的基础上,这使我感受尤深。日本绝大多数企业,近八年没有增加过工资,但社会治安仍然比北欧还好,真是让人赞叹。日本一旦重新起飞,这样的基础一定让它一飞冲天。华为若连续遭遇两个冬 天,就不知道华为人是否还会平静,沉着应对,克服困难,期盼春天。 日本从20世纪90年代初起,连续十年低增长、零增长、负增长……这个冬天太长了。日本企业是如何度过来的,他们遇到了什么困难,有些什么经验,能给我们什么启示? 这是我们赴日访问的目的所在。 华为经历了十年高速发展,能不能长期持续发展,会不会遭遇低增长,甚至是长时间的低增长;企业的结构与管理上存在什么问题; 员工在和平时期快速晋升,能否经受得起冬天的严寒; 快速发展中的现金流会不会中断,如在江河凝固时,有涓涓细流,不致使企业处于完全停滞……这些都是企业领导人应预先研究的。 华为总会有冬天,准备好棉衣,比不准备好。我们该如何应对华为的冬天? 这是我们在日本时时思索和讨论的话题。 奋斗是一个民族崛起的动力源泉 在一个偏僻乡村的小居酒屋,巧遇一群旅游的日本退休老人,他们为我们热情地演唱了《拉网小调》,我们也情不自禁地与他们同唱北海道民歌《北国之春》。 他们那样乐观、热情、无忧无虑,感染了我。相比之下,我感到中国老人有操不完的心,心事重重,活得很累。我们父辈们沉重的心情,他们至死也没有轻松过。 我曾数百次听过《北国之春》,每一次都热泪盈眶,都为其朴实无华的歌词所震撼。《北国之春》原作者的创作之意是歌颂创业者和奋斗者的,而不是当今青年人误认为的一首情歌。 当一个青年背井离乡,远离亲人,去为事业奋斗,惟有妈妈无时无刻不在关怀他,以至城里不知季节已变换,在春天已经来临时,还给他邮来棉衣御严冬。而我再没有妈妈会给我寄来折耳根(鱼腥草)、山野菜、辣肠……了,这一切只能长存于永恒的记忆。儿行千里母担扰,天下父母都一样,担忧着儿女。我写的 《我的父亲母亲》一文,日本朋友也译成了日文、英文让员工传阅,他们误认为我是孝子。我是因为没有尽到照顾父母的责任,精神才如此内疚与痛苦。我把全部精力献给了工作,忘了父母的安危,实际上是一个不称职的儿子。 一个人离开家奋斗是为了获得美好的生活,爱情又是美好生活中最重要的部分,但爱情就像独木桥一样,人家过了,你就不能过。离家已经五年,在残雪消融、溪流淙淙的时候,面对自横的独木桥,真不知别人是否已经过去,心爱的姑娘可安在。那种惆怅,那种失落,那种迷茫,成功了又能怎么样? 棣棠丛丛,朝雾蒙蒙,静静的水车,小屋,与阵阵无忧无虑的儿歌声相伴的是父兄的沉默寡言。我们多数人能去读大学,都是父兄默默献出自己的结果。他们含辛茹苦的,一点一点的劳动积攒,来供应远在他乡孤立无助的游子,他们自身反而没有文化。他们用自己坚硬的脊梁,为我们搭起了人生和事业的第一个台阶。 但愿他们别太苦了自己了,愁时相对无言也沽两杯薄酒。我们千万不要忘记他们,千万不要嫌弃他们,千万不要忘记报答他们。 由此我想到,我们每一个人的成功,都来自亲人的无私奉献,我们生活、工作和事业的原动力,首先来自妈妈御冬的寒衣,来自沉默寡言的父兄,故乡的水车、小屋、独木桥,还有曾经爱过你但已分别的姑娘…… 《北国之春》是日本人民奋斗的一个缩写。 我亲自领悟过日本人民的勤奋,没有他们这种精神,就很难用二三十年时间,就从二战的废墟中崛起。日本民族善于精工,在产品经济时代大放过光芒,让全世界人民对日本人民刮目相看。我也领教了他们在困难时期战胜萧条的忍耐与乐观 精神。 日本是一个岛国,国土面积狭小,而且大多数是高山,日本民族因而养成了善于把“长大厚重”的东西,作成“短小薄轻”,长期养成了精工的习惯。小小的花园,是那样的美轮美奂;小小的街道是那样的整齐、精美,以至任何一个角落都让人舒适惬意。小小的功能强大的相机; 曾经风驰电掣般席卷世界市场的家用电器;一个无煤炭、铁矿、石油……的国家,生产的优质汽车遍布全球。日本人民的勤劳,与德国民族的执着,在机电产品产业时代,震撼了世界。他们无怨无悔,勤奋努力,不断奉献的精神,创建了日本的繁荣。 日本目前虽然遇到了困难,但其国民的忍耐、乐观、勤奋和奋斗的精神未变,信念未变,对生活和工作的热爱未变。天道酬勤,相信日本能够度过这寒冷的冬天。 日本企业遇到了什么困难? 我们访问的是实业型公司,这样的公司相比其他类型的公司好一些。产品还在市场上有销售,现金流还能转得动。只是八年的经营成长曲线是一条平线,几乎没有增长,工资总额也几乎没有增长,甚至还略有下降。 日本企业面临的三种过剩,沉重地压在企业的头上,使之调整困难。这三种困难是雇佣过剩、设备过剩和债务过剩。这三种过剩的调整,涉及机构改革、结构及 产业重组,向发展知识创新产业过渡,以及培养核心经营能力和向速度经营的转变。过去的日本企业体制,束缚了这种转变,使之困难重重。日本企业真正感到了,不是做什么事好,做什么事不好,关键在于有无核心竞争力。 如果,华为的增长速度大幅减慢,日本企业的三种过剩都会在华为出现。没有及早的认识和充分的思想准备,就会陷于被动。 随着日本企业长时间不吸收新员工,员工平均年龄逐步增大,人才结构由宝塔形转向纺锤形,优秀的人才少,新生力量少,年龄大的一般员工多,使企业缺少活 力,而且工资成本较高。由于人才的流动减弱,职位相对凝固,使创新明显不足。 日本企业的内部改革滞后,国内企业竞争不激烈,企业内部员工也缺少必要的竞争。促使企业改革的内因、外因,并没有因为经济不景气凸显。日本企业完全靠 自身力量实行较大的改革,十分困难。如前所讲,日本是一个治安很好、生活很 舒适、稳定的国家,尽管八年未涨工资,并未足以威胁消费,人们比较安于现状的生活,日本人连留学都很少出去。这种安定,也不利于迫使企业痛下决心进行改革。 尽管他们已废除了年功序列制、终身雇佣制,加强了绩效考核,日本企业现在内部也开始进行改组,重新划分结构,从一个大公司什么都干,逐步收缩到几大领域,然后这几大领域财务独立,共同品牌,使核算目标清晰化等等,但观念和文化的惯性使这种变革的努力见效不大。 日本企业也开始推行员工持股制度,激活和推动员工之间和企业之间的相互竞争。日本的法律原先是不允许员工持股的。但日本企业在根本的竞争力提升上并没有有力度的行动。治标不治本,深层次的问题依然存在,苦熬是熬不出头的。 因为日本一贯比较求稳,致使企业经营者年龄偏大,决策过程过于谨慎。许多重要决策必须一致通过,少数人通不过,要做工作,甚至有时做不通就拖着,这种决策的安全性拖累决策的及时性。过于民主的决策体系并不一定是好的。 日本的企业相比亚洲其他国家已经比较国际化,但他们总结他们的失败之因时,还是说他们不国际化。想想华为比松下、NEC的国际化还差多少,有什么可以值得盲目自豪的。亚洲企业的国际化本来就难,我国在封闭几十年后,短短廿年的发展,还不足以支撑国际化。华为的国际化步伐更难,仅仅因为大量的外籍员工,读不懂中文的文档,大量的国内员工英文也没过关,就足以看到华为的国际化是多么的困难。如果不克服这些困难,华为也可能是昙花一现。 日本政府也决定在2003年之前,处理完不良债务,把33兆亿日元的债务从银行买过来。实行小政府,确立地方分权。进行税制改革,降低所得税,提高消费税。 实行教育改革,改变过去的平均教育法,采取因材施教的分类教育政策,开发人的潜能,提高年轻人的创造力。改革社会保障制度,引进美国的社会保障制度。加强IT建设,以信息化带动工业化。为企业的进一步改革打下基础。 华为怎么办? 有人将企业比做一条船,松下电工就把自己的企业比做是冰海里的一条船。在松下电工,我们看到不论是办公室,还是会议室,或是通道的墙上,随处都能看到 一幅张贴画,画上是一条即将撞上冰山的巨轮,下面写着:“能挽救这条船的,惟有你。”其危机意识可见一斑。在华为公司,我们的冬天意识是否那么强烈? 是否传递到基层?是否人人行动起来了。 华为还未处在冬天的位置,在秋末冬初,能认真向别人学习,加快工作效率的整体提高,改良流程的合理性与有效性,裁并不必要的机构,精简富余的员工,加强员工的自我培训和素质提高。居安思危,也许冬天来临之前,我们已做好了棉袄。 华为成长在全球信息产业发展最快的时期,特别是中国从一个落后网改造成为世界级先进网,迅速发展的大潮流中,华为像一片树叶,有幸掉到了这个潮流的大船上,是躺在大船上随波逐流到今天,本身并没有经历惊涛骇浪、洪水泛滥、大堤崩溃等危机的考验。因此,华为的成功应该是机遇大于其素质与本领。 什么叫成功?是像日本那些企业那样,经九死一生还能好好地活着,这才是真正的成功。华为没有成功,只是在成长。 华为经过的太平时间太长了,在和平时期升的官太多了,这也许会构成我们的灾难。泰坦尼克号也是在一片欢呼声中出的海。 我们有许多员工盲目地在自豪,他们就像井底之蛙一样,看到我们在局部产品上偶然领先西方公司,就认为我们公司已是世界水平了。他们并不知道世界著名公司的内涵,也不知道世界的发展走势,以及别人不愿公布的潜在成就。华为在这方面很年轻,幼稚,很不成熟。 华为组织结构的不均衡,是低效率的运作结构。就像一个桶装水多少取决于最短的一块木板一样,不均衡的地方就是流程的瓶颈。例如: 我公司初创时期处于饥寒交迫,等米下锅。初期十分重视研发、营销以快速适应市场的做法是正确的。活不下去,哪来的科学管理。但是,随着创业初期的过去,这种偏向并没有向科学合理转变,因为晋升到高层的干部多来自研发、营销的干部,他们在处理问题、价值评价时,有不自觉的习惯倾向,以使强的部门更强,弱的部门更弱,形成瓶颈。有时一些高层干部指责计划与预算不准确,成本核算与控制没有进入项目,会计账目的分产品、分层、分区域、分项目的核算做得不好,现金流还达不到先进水平……但如果我们的价值评价体系不能使公司的组织均衡的话,这些部门缺乏优秀干部,就更不能实现同步的进步。它不进步,你自己进步,整个报表会好?天知道。这种偏废不改变,华为的进步就是空话。 华为由于短暂的成功,员工暂时的待遇比较高,就滋生了许多明哲保身的干部。他们事事请示,僵化教条地执行领导的讲话,生怕丢了自己的乌纱帽,成为对事负责制的障碍。对人负责制与对事负责制是两种根本(不同)的制度,对人负责制是一种收敛的系统。对事负责制是依据流程及授权,以及有效的监控,使最明白人具有处理问题的权力,是一种扩张的管理体系。而现在华为的高中级干部都自觉不自觉地习惯于对人负责制,使流程化IT管理推行困难。 职业化、规范化、表格化、模板化的管理还十分欠缺。华为是一群从青纱帐里出来的土八路,还习惯于埋个地雷、端个炮楼的工作方法。还不习惯于职业化、表 格化、模板化、规范化的管理。重复劳动、重叠的管理还十分多,这就是效率不高的根源。我看过香港秘书的工作,有条有序地一会儿就把事做完了,而我们还要摸摸索索,做完了还不知合格否,又开一个小会审查,你看看这就是高成本。要迅速实现IT管理,我们的干部素质,还必须极大地提高。 推行IT的障碍,主要来自公司内部,来自高中级干部因电子流管理导致权力丧失的失落。我们是否正确认识了公司的生死存亡必须来自管理体系的进步?这种进步就是快速、正确,端对端,点对点,去除了许多中间环节。面临大批的高中级干部随IT(管理)的推行而下岗,我们是否作好了准备。为了保住帽子与权杖,是否可以不推行电子商务?这关键是,我们得说服我们的竞争对手也不要上,大家都手工劳动?我看是做不到的。沉舟侧畔千帆过,我们不前进必定死路一条。 华为存在的问题不知要多少日日夜夜才数得清楚…… 但只要我们不断地发现问题,不断地探索,不断地自我批判,不断地建设与改 进,总会有出路的。就如松下电工昭示的救冰海沉船的惟有本企业员工一样,能救华为的,也只有华为自己的员工。从来就没有什么救世主,也没有神仙皇帝,要创造美好的明天,全靠我们自己。 冬天总会过去,春天一定来到。我们乘着冬天,养精蓄锐,加强内部的改造,我们和日本企业一道,度过这严冬。我们定会迎来残雪消融,溪流淙淙,华为的春天也一定会来临。 创业难,守成难,知难不难。 高科技企业以往的成功,往往是失败之母,在这瞬息万变的信息社会,惟有惶者才能生存。 任正非与港湾高层杭州谈话记录
July 21 平坦的世界,坎坷的征途当世界一马平川,用什么来驰骋?
结构定位优势:来自于外部资源的优势,政策优待和政府的保护。
综合协调优势:来自于内部的工作流程,体制,文化和领导力的有机结合,组织的综合学习能力。
游戏规则会变,环境会变,只有改变是永恒和常态,想不变的还有自己,想生存的永远要关注自身。
so,只有综合协调优势就是企业可持续的竞争优势,来自于内部协调性所表现出来的韧力(resilience),一种组织去适应不断产生的非连续性的变化(continual,discontinuous change)的能力。真正的核心竞争力,就在于此。 May 23 Which site has been accessed 314 times? :-D everyday economics More Sex Is Safer Sex The economic case for promiscuity. By Steven E. Landsburg Posted Saturday, July 6, 1996, at 3:30 AM ET
It's true: AIDS is nature's awful retribution for our tolerance of immoderate and socially irresponsible sexual behavior. The epidemic is the price of our permissive attitudes toward monogamy, chastity, and other forms of sexual conservatism. You've read elsewhere about the sin of promiscuity. Let me tell you about the sin of self-restraint. Suppose you walk into a bar and find four potential sex partners. Two are highly promiscuous; the others venture out only once a year. The promiscuous ones are, of course, more likely to be HIV-positive. That gives you a 50-50 chance of finding a relatively safe match. But suppose all once-a-year revelers could be transformed into twice-a-year revelers. Then, on any given night, you'd run into twice as many of them. Those two promiscuous bar patrons would be outnumbered by four of their more cautious rivals. Your odds of a relatively safe match just went up from 50-50 to four out of six. That's why increased activity by sexual conservatives can slow down the rate of infection and reduce the prevalence of AIDS. In fact, according to Professor Michael Kremer of MIT's economics department, the spread of AIDS in England could plausibly be retarded if everyone with fewer than about 2.25 partners per year were to take additional partners more frequently. That covers three-quarters of British heterosexuals between the ages of 18 and 45. (Much of this column is inspired by Professor Kremer's research. If multiple partnerships save lives, then monogamy can be deadly. Imagine a country where almost all women are monogamous, while all men demand two female partners per year. Under those conditions, a few prostitutes end up servicing all the men. Before long, the prostitutes are infected; they pass the disease to the men; and the men bring it home to their monogamous wives. But if each of those monogamous wives was willing to take on one extramarital partner, the market for prostitution would die out, and the virus, unable to spread fast enough to maintain itself, might die out along with it. Or consider Joan, who attended a party where she ought to have met the charming and healthy Martin. Unfortunately Fate, through its agents at the Centers for Disease Control, intervened. The morning of the party, Martin ran across one of those CDC-sponsored subway ads touting the virtues of abstinence. Chastened, he decided to stay home. In Martin's absence, Joan hooked up with the equally charming but considerably less prudent Maxwell--and Joan got AIDS. Abstinence can be even deadlier than monogamy. If those subway ads are more effective against the cautious Martins than against the reckless Maxwells, then they are a threat to the hapless Joans. This is especially so when they displace Calvin Klein ads, which might have put Martin in a more socially beneficent mood. You might object that even if Martin had dallied with Joan, he would only have freed Maxwell to prey on another equally innocent victim. To this there are two replies. First, we don't know that Maxwell would have found another partner: Without Joan, he might have struck out that night. Second, reducing the rate of HIV transmission is in any event not the only social goal worth pursuing: If it were, we'd outlaw sex entirely. What we really want is to minimize the number of infections resulting from any given number of sexual encounters; the flip side of this observation is that it is desirable to maximize the number of (consensual) sexual encounters leading up to any given number of infections. Even if Martin had failed to deny Maxwell a conquest that evening, and thus failed to slow the epidemic, he could at least have made someone happy. To an economist, it's clear why people with limited sexual pasts choose to supply too little sex in the present: Their services are underpriced. If sexual conservatives could effectively advertise their histories, HIV-conscious suitors would compete to lavish them with attention. But that doesn't happen, because such conservatives are hard to identify. Insufficiently rewarded for relaxing their standards, they relax their standards insufficiently. So a socially valuable service is under-rewarded and therefore under-supplied. This is a problem we've experienced before. We face it whenever a producer fails to safeguard the environment. Extrapolating from their usual response to environmental issues, I assume that liberals will want to attack the problem of excessive sexual restraint through coercive regulation. As a devotee of the price system, I'd prefer to encourage good behavior through an appropriate system of subsidies. The question is: How do we subsidize Martin's sexual awakening without simultaneously subsidizing Maxwell's ongoing predations? Just paying people to have sex won't work--not with Maxwell around to reap the bulk of the rewards. The key is to subsidize something that is used in conjunction with sex and that Martin values more than Maxwell. Quite plausibly, that something is condoms. Maxwell knows that he is more likely than Martin to be infected already, and hence probably values condoms less than Martin does. Subsidized condoms could be just the ticket for luring Martin out of his shell without stirring Maxwell to a new frenzy of activity. As it happens, there is another reason to subsidize condoms: Condom use itself is under-rewarded. When you use one, you are protecting both yourself and your future partners, but you are rewarded (with a lower chance of infection) only for protecting yourself. Your future partners don't know about your past condom use and therefore can't reward it with extravagant courtship. That means you fail to capture the benefits you're conferring, and as a result, condoms are underused. It is often argued that subsidized (or free) condoms have an upside and a downside: The upside is that they reduce the risk from a given encounter, and the downside is that they encourage more encounters. But it's plausible that in reality, that's not an upside and a downside--it's two upsides. Without the subsidies, people don't use enough condoms, and the sort of people who most value condoms don't have enough sex partners. All these problems--along with the case for subsidies--would vanish if our sexual pasts could somehow be made visible, so that future partners could reward past prudence and thereby provide appropriate incentives. Perhaps technology can ultimately make that solution feasible. (I envision the pornography of the future: "Her skirt slid to the floor and his gaze came to rest on her thigh, where the imbedded monitor read, 'This site has been accessed 314 times.' ") But until then, the best we can do is to make condoms inexpensive--and get rid of those subway ads. sidebarReturn to article There are two groups of people who could slow down the epidemic by increasing their sexual activity: first, those who have had unusually few partners in the past; and second, those who expect to have unusually few partners in the future. (In practice, these two groups are likely to overlap substantially.) As I've argued in the body of this column, those in the first group are relatively likely to be uninfected, so by increasing their activity, they can improve the pool of safe potential partners for everybody else. But those in the second group perform a different, and more macabre, social service. To visualize it, imagine for a moment that you are an AIDS virus, and think about the worst fates that could possibly befall you. High on your list would have to be getting passed on to somebody whose future plans don't include much sex. One way to make life more difficult for AIDS viruses is for more of those people to be catching the virus (instead of other people), and thus serving as "dead ends" for chains of infection. The body of this column discusses only the benefits of increased activity by those in the first group. Professor Kremer's estimates account for the benefits of increased activity by both groups. To keep the calculations manageable, Professor Kremer assumes that the two groups coincide exactly, and therefore that each sexual conservative is able to confer either type of benefit. sidebarReturn to article Thus there are two different "optimal" levels of sexual activity for Martin, depending on what one means by "optimal." If we want to minimize the prevalence of AIDS, then there is a certain optimal increase in Martin's sexual-activity level. If, on the other hand, we want to maximize the difference between the benefits of sex and the costs of AIDS, then there is a different (and larger) optimal increase in Martin's activity level. Of these two notions of "optimal," economists will have a strong preference for the latter. (It should also be noted that there is a difference between minimizing the long-run prevalence of AIDS and minimizing the short-run rate of infection; this offers yet a third possible interpretation of the word "optimal.") sidebarReturn to article The same logic applies not just to AIDS, but also to hepatitis, herpes, and other sexually transmitted diseases. Steven E. Landsburg, the author of The Armchair Economist: Economics and Everyday Life, is a professor of economics at the University of Rochester. His "Everyday Economics" column--applying the lessons of Econ 101 to everyday life--will be a regular monthly feature of SLATE. E-mail to the author may be sent to armchair@troi.cc.rochester.edu.Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2033/ 乔布斯:掌握破坏的艺术韦尔奇的位置该让一让了。有了苹果和皮克斯,史蒂夫·乔布斯已经证明他是 21 世纪首席执行官的典范。 作者: Fred Vogelstein 《财富》中文版5月上半月刊 破坏大师又要出手了。凭借总能占据新闻头条的两家卓越企业──苹果电脑公司(Apple Computer)和制作动画片的皮克斯公司(Pixar),史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)站在了最疯狂的技术天才所梦寐以求的高度: 在引发消费者兴奋的同时,让多个行业蒙受浩劫。去年第四季度,苹果每 1 分钟就买出 100 台 iPod,它的网上音乐商店 iTunes Music Store 可能占到今年全美音乐销售额的 10%。1 月,苹果发布了装有英特尔(Intel)芯片、速度超快的新型 Mac 系列电脑,它的市值随即迅速超过了竞争对手戴尔(Dell),来得真是恰到好处!4 月 1 日,公司年满 30 岁。生日快乐,苹果! 皮克斯的表现同样优异,但有关它的新闻更令人关注。曾有传言说,这家电影公司可能会与迪士尼(Disney)联姻,乔布斯本人将加盟那家媒体巨头的领导层。听到这消息,华尔街、好莱坞、硅谷无不惊讶地张大了嘴巴。如果交易达成,乔布斯把皮克斯卖给迪士尼,他就会是娱乐界最有影响力的投资人。他在数字动画上的领先地位,加上崛起中的 iPod 和 iMac 帝国,正好让他处在好莱坞和媒体的交融之处,他也将由此成为掌控媒体消费快速演变的人物。 他之所以有这样的成绩,可归结为一个简单的事实: 乔布斯对破坏进行管理的才能无人可及。很多创业者都会谈论如何将理念转变为产品,但最初先行者的结局常常是被甩到后面。很多时候,冲在最前面的人往往成了财力雄厚的竞争对手的靶子。想想早期的 PC 生产商或表格、文字处理软件制作公司,你还能说出几家来?VisiCalc、XyWrite,还有印象吗?没有了吧?而我们用的,一直是微软(Microsoft)的 Excel 和 Word。搜索引擎呢?Alta Vista、Lycos,还有 Excite,在 Google 的挤压下已经彻底消失。更新的例子是,NetFlix 和 TiVo 在影视领域创造了大受欢迎的新业务,但它们现在面临被更廉价的数字视频录制服务挤掉的危险,比如宽带、按需点播的视频服务等。Research in Motion 公司的 BlackBerry 是远程电子邮件的知名品牌,但现在,每个新款多功能手机的出现都让公司发抖。 无论是在苹果还是在皮克斯,乔布斯都控制著技术的发展。他可以在现状里制造混乱,并抢在众人面前驾驭这股混乱。而且,他还建立了两种不同的模式来做到这一点。苹果的秘诀不只是改变游戏规则的技术突破(让听音乐和玩电脑更方便),还在于乔布斯追求自我破坏,不给别人破坏他的机会。位于帕洛阿尔托的未来研究所(Institute of the Future)的保罗•萨弗(Paul Saffo)说: “大多数人并不了解,史蒂夫不仅擅长利用技术做出美观好用的产品,他还擅长做得比别人更快。”我们来看看 iPod: 第一款 iPod 是四年前发布的,只有一个单色屏和 5G 的容量。现在,它有了彩屏和 60G 硬盘,而价格却基本没变。iPod Mini 推出后大获成功,然而只过了 18 个月,iPod Nano 就问世了。哪家公司敢如此推陈出新呢? 对于皮克斯,乔布斯采取了不同的策略: 拉拢竞争对手。许多破坏者的做法与乔布斯正好相反: 老辣的竞争者会在新领域里投入大把的钱,推动自己的业务,搞垮新创公司。皮克斯反其道行之。眼下,迪士尼的动画片业务低迷,它和皮克斯之间的利润销售协议正待重新开始谈判。皮克斯要利用这个大好时机,打进这个潜在的强大竞争对手。在此过程中,乔布斯将得到一块供他驰骋的更广阔领域,而他还得了一匹快得多的马。想想看,控制了苹果和迪士尼两大资源,他制造破坏的可能性有多大?一夜之间,iPod 便可以更深地进入 ESPN、迪士尼的电影库、ABC 的电视剧。这会不会让你发抖呢? April 06 通用的管理创新史通用一直在树立管理上理念和操作上的标杆,别的公司一直在后面追随:
1900年,通用设立第一个公司的研究和开发实验室
1930s,通用关注劳工关系,引入了企业年金和利润后分红
1950s,通用引入超详细的五册管理人员全面指导手册 blue books
1960s,通用提出战略规划
1980s-1990s,提出领导力,合力促进(Work-Out),和Six Sigma,倡导全球化的管理文化。 April 05 Cheryl Ways' 的真实故事Cheryl Ways' 的真实故事,最早被登载在《财富》杂志,好久没有遇到这么让人印象深刻的故事了,一直挥之不去,感谢google,让她来历分明,轮廓清晰。
At about 9 p.m. on Oct. 15, Cheryl Ways' office phone rang with a call from her husband: "What are you still doing there? Come home," he begged. Ways, a 30-year-old IT worker at tech giant Agilent Technologies, told him she'd leave soon. Then she went back to work. A half-hour later, she shut off her computer and walked down Agilent's darkened corridors. It was hours after most of her co-workers had left, hours later than she typically stayed, and the last time she'd do it in her career. Three weeks earlier, Ways had been laid off. In that, she was just another statistic in a truly dreadful year for the paycheck nation. According to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, corporate America announced nearly two million job cuts in 2001, the most since Challenger started its survey in 1993. Agilent, an $8.3 billion spinoff of Hewlett-Packard, had been hammered not only by the downturn in the economy but also by the downfall of the telecoms that were once big buyers of its chips, electronic components, and testing and measurement devices. So Ways' getting caught in a downsizing isn't surprising. What is surprising is the manner in which Ways left: not by spending her lame-duck days updating her resume on company time or prying the A's off office keyboards, but by working harder, longer, and with an intensity that rivaled the most productive periods of her five years at Agilent and HP. The answer to why she did it--and how Agilent was able to wring such performance and devotion from tens of thousands of employees working beneath an ax--provides a lesson for all companies struggling to slim down in these post-boom years. In many ways, Agilent had a head start: It had worked hard on the way up to gain its employees' trust. But on the way down, Agilent has also made a series of smart moves involving good management, good planning, and most of all, empathy. In interviews with dozens of current, former, and soon-to-be former Agilent employees, almost no one had a bad word to say about the company. Which is how Agilent was able to slash, cut, and downsize its way to No. 31 on this year's list of the Best Companies to Work For. Let's get one thing out of the way: This isn't a story about money. In all of FORTUNE's interviews, Agilent's severance--a package that involved at the minimum three months' pay and career-placement help--barely came up. Instead a host of other actions were raised: the Hail Mary steps the company took to avoid downsizing; the barrage of e-mails and face-to-face meetings with top management down; even the tired sound in the CEO's voice as he delivered news of mass layoffs. Together, these created an atmosphere in which people like Ways--three months after being axed--could say of her bosses, "I felt horrible they had to do this," and of her former co-workers, "This was my gift to them: to leave my job in the best way possible." Letting employees go in a humane fashion isn't just about finding a way for executives to sleep at night. Bad downsizing, which management experts argue is the norm, is bad business. A recently completed study of 18 years' worth of downsizing data by Wayne Cascio, a business school professor at the University of Colorado at Denver, found that while large layoffs can boost stock prices for a couple of years, they don't lead to greater profits. One problem is that while expenses drop, revenues tend to drop too, as the remaining workers cope with what organizational behaviorists call survivor syndrome: the anger, fear, anxiety, frustration, and decreased risk taking that can follow mass layoffs. "Just when you need employees to take risks to turn the organization around, they take to the trenches," says David Noer, an employment consultant in Greensboro, N.C. "You end up with a double loss." Agilent couldn't afford survivor syndrome. When HP spun off the company in November 1999 to focus on PCs and computer equipment, Agilent was left with technologies that general consumers not only never saw but would be hard-pressed to understand if they did. Agilent's customers were engineers and scientists who demanded the finest high-resolution spectrometers, the best Ethernet-over-SONET mapper chips, the most advanced mouse cDNA microarrays--products that win or lose in the market thanks only to their technological edge. To get out of this recession, Agilent needed employees motivated enough to invent great products. Agilent is run by three people, one of whom is alive. At the earthly level, there's CEO Ned Barnholt. Barnholt, a 35-year veteran of HP, sports big gold-framed glasses that droop slightly at the sides. He wears his gray hair in a comb-over. He is completely without pretense. When Barnholt, 58, chats with employees--something he does frequently enough that in the past six months he's given speeches to and taken questions from some 20,000 workers--they call him Ned; calling him "Mr. Barnholt" elicits giggles from employees. But while Barnholt manages the company, he seems to consider himself only a caretaker for HP founders Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett. All big decisions are vetted with the question, What would Dave and Bill do? Indeed, the entire company functions on the premise that it is the real heir of Packard and Hewlett. When HP's house archivist had to choose between staying at HP or going with Barnholt, she went with Agilent. The company's Palo Alto headquarters is home to Hewlett and Packard's original 200A Audio Oscillator, which launched HP, and its labs still churn out testing and measurement devices. But even more, Agilent considers itself the true keeper of the HP Way--the management objectives devised by Hewlett and Packard that spelled out how to treat customers, shareholders, and most of all employees. The Way's key precept is that workers will give their best if they're treated honestly and listened to. In his 1995 book The HP Way, Packard asserted that making people feel that they are working toward a common purpose or solving a common problem creates "participatory management." To get there, all managers had to keep to a strict open-door policy and practice MBWA--management by walking around. But by the late '90s, MBWA had turned into management by consensus. As the company's growth slowed, both former CEO Lew Platt and HP's new CEO, Carly Fiorina (who came aboard in the summer of 1999, as Agilent was spinning off), struggled with the dilemma of rejuvenating the business without tossing the Way. At Agilent, Barnholt's solution was to adopt it, but with three new "values" that he mentions at every turn: speed, accountability, and focus. To make them more than corporate buzzwords, he instituted a pay-for-performance plan for managers, for example, and retrained all 6,000 to get them making decisions faster and better. For Agilent's first year, it seemed Barnholt had found the right formula. When the company announced in March 2000 that it had developed a photonic switch--a device it dubbed the "vital missing link" for the future all-optical network--its shares shot up 39% in one day, giving the company a $40 billion market cap. Hiring boomed as well. By November 2000, Agilent employed 47,000 people, a 12% boost in just one year. Then came 2001: the year the revolution failed. Suddenly Barnholt had to figure out if the HP Way would work as well in reverse. Early last March, Barnholt called a series of meetings with his top management, almost all of whom had been with HP for decades. They had heard their telecom customers report that business was bad and getting worse. And they had seen the cancellation rate on orders creeping up. Barnholt wanted to find a way to cut costs temporarily. What would Dave and Bill do? Easy. They would do the same thing they had done when HP's business soured in the '70s: Cut expenses and then, if necessary, cut salaries. So Barnholt froze hiring and slashed about 5,000 temps. He then asked all employees to cut discretionary spending--without explaining where, how, or how much. Agilent peppered employees with information about why the cuts were necessary and how savings would help. Employees heard about it in e-mails, in Agilent's twice-a-week newsletter called InfoSparks, and in "coffee talks": regular news and brainstorming meetings that managers are required to hold with their people. Then Barnholt delivered his own take on the situation. As he does every quarter on the day Agilent releases its numbers to Wall Street, he stepped into a conference room down the hall from his office and recorded a speech to employees on the state of affairs. A few minutes later it was delivered, elementary school-style, over public-address systems companywide. He urged them to keep the fight going. For Agilent workers, cost cutting became a calling. Employees built Websites to house data that once were printed out; they crashed with friends when traveling on business; they brought bags of chips to recruiting events instead of calling in catering. Without specific guidelines, no one knew how much they had to cut, so they tried to cut as much as possible. For Juan Yamuni, a 33-year-old analyst in Agilent's international treasury department, that meant curtailing approved business trips to South America, even though his managers never told him to cancel. "Top management was good about guiding you instead of getting a direct order"--he says, making a karate chop in the air--"from upstairs." By late summer, the company had cut its travel expenses 50% and its printer and PC purchases 70%. But that wasn't enough to counteract the slowdown in business from Agilent's floundering customers. The company's revenue per employee fell from $71,000 a quarter at the end of October 2000 to $54,000 a quarter in April 2001 (excluding a 5,000-person division sold soon after to Philips Electronics). Even uglier, net income per employee fell from $6,500 to $1,900 in the same period. Instead of eliminating staff, Barnholt announced a temporary 10% across-the-board salary cut to wangle $280 million in annual savings. Employees cheered the move. "This was a matter of saving employees," says Stacy Yu, 25, who handles marketing for fiber-optic products. "It sounds hokey, but it's like a family. Everyone knows that we have to chip in to make sure that everyone else is okay." But everything was far from okay. Sales were plummeting, with customers canceling almost $250 million in orders in Agilent's third quarter. For the first time, the company was facing a quarterly loss. Barnholt was forced to do something that Hewlett and Packard had never had to: cut staff. In mid-June he gathered his management team and challenged them to find a way to slash 4,000 people--9% of the company--and to do it without making them or the survivors feel mistreated. Hard enough. Then he laid out tough ground rules: Employees were to be told they were being let go only by their direct managers, and no across-the-board cuts were to take place. Barnholt wanted everything handled division by division, looking at each program and each employee. And he wanted all names ready in one month. "I was very worried," he says. "We were in new territory here. Our people don't have experience with this." So Agilent went on a downsizing campaign that was two parts communication, one part execution. Barnholt knew that he had to set the tone. On Aug. 20, the day Agilent would report a quarterly loss of $219 million--its first ever--Barnholt broke tradition and got on the P.A. before releasing the information to Wall Street. He wanted employees to hear about the downsizing from him, not from CNBC. Barnholt first thanked everyone for cutting costs and cutting salaries. Then he presented the deteriorating state of business. As staffers across the country stared slack-jawed at speakers in the ceiling, Barnholt said that downsizing was unavoidable. He detailed how many people would lose their jobs, where the number came from, and how the "painful" process would work. "This is the toughest decision of my career," he said, his voice ragged. "But we've run out of alternatives." The second round of communication came from the managers doing the layoffs. Barnholt sent more than 3,000 managers through a series of daylong training sessions at outplacement firm Drake Beam Morin, where they role-played and listened to the right and wrong ways to let people go. Back at Agilent, managers were told to be as honest as possible, to keep the door even more open than usual, and to field every question lobbed. At the same time, they had to evaluate every program and position they oversaw to come up with the 4,000 total. Forms used to help in the analysis were posted on Agilent's intranet; employees could see the criteria by which they'd be measured. Just as people were being told whether they'd stay or go, Sept. 11 hit. Any chance of an imminent recovery disappeared. Barnholt again met with his executive staff and announced in November that another 9% would have to be cut. In one year, then, Barnholt would be eliminating 8,000 full-time workers and almost 5,000 temp workers--27% of Agilent's staff at its peak. The August downsizing program was repeated, with Barnholt crafting a new message and managers submitting new names. "I knew that this wasn't part of the HP Way, and it's not what Bill and Dave would have wanted," says Benjamin Steers, a 26-year-old IT worker who joined Agilent out of college. "But if they were faced with the same situation, they would have had to do the exact same thing. And even though all of us probably lost sleep worrying about our jobs and whether we'd have them or not, I know Ned probably lost a lot more having to get up there in front of everybody and make this announcement and have to let go people in his family." Management couldn't have written a better response. Agilent had succeeded in turning the "us vs. them" of corporate downsizing into just "us." For all Agilent's communication, empathy, and family bonding, the company is not out of the woods, either financially or culturally. Tech and telecom companies still aren't buying as they used to. And if finances don't improve, another round of downsizing is possible. The more Barnholt cleans house, the less likely the remaining staff are to view him as the benevolent head of their family. Take the paradox of the booming semiconductor factory. Employees at Agilent's Newark, Calif., fab (as it's called in the industry) developed a groundbreaking way to make special cell phone filter chips called FBARs. After years of research, the fab by early summer was just beginning to turn out chips. Despite that, Agilent's top management figured that they could save millions by shutting it down and moving operations--fewer than 5% of Newark's 300 people--to a bigger fab in Colorado. Dave Allen, the general manager of the division, delivered the news. Standing in the cafeteria in early September, he explained the cost savings and told the workers that almost all of them would be out of a job within a year. The fab, he said, would close by October 2002. But he also said that since the chips were in high demand and since the manufacturing process was so new, he needed everyone to stay focused and committed. At first, "everything went to hell," as Allen reported to his boss. For ten days, production dropped. Then it went up. And up. Soon Newark was producing more chips at a faster rate than anyone had forecast. Why? "We were brutally honest with them about what we're doing--what drove the decision, what the timing is, what's going to happen," explains Allen. "That honesty and integrity up-front is critical. If you don't have it, you lose their hearts and their minds, and they won't be productive." That's the management point of view. But on the ground, more basic human instincts are at play, like hope and the desire to hold on to a job. A group of the fab's workers sat in a break room recently trying to explain why they've been so driven--even while being driven out. At first they couldn't come up with any definite reasons. But then one woman started talking. "Well," says Mary Dominguez, who has been working at the fab for 16 years, "maybe Fort Collins won't work. And maybe they'll let us stay." Everyone nodded. April 03 敬业的雇员,最佳的雇主 Ray Liu=文 2006年3月23日 员工敬业度,而不是员工满意度,是衡量最佳雇主的理想指标。 “最佳雇主”无疑是个迷人的词眼。近年来,各种最佳雇主评选是你方唱罢、我又登场。在《世界经理人》杂志的所有栏目中,“最佳雇主”栏目的文章也一直稳居读者评刊榜的前列。 那么,什么样的公司才算得上最佳雇主呢? 员工满意度的指标曾被业界广泛采用。理由很简单,只有员工满意的企业才算是好企业,只有员工满意的老板才是好老板。但按照人力资源管理大师戴夫·乌尔里克(Dave Ulrich)的理论来分析,这个指标远非完美。乌尔里克认为,人力资源部门不应该把重心放在员工招聘或薪资福利等传统活动(activities)上,而应放在结果(outcome)上。而大量的相关研究表明,在员工满意和企业绩效之间并没有必然的联系。 反对的声音还包括:满意的员工不一定是高效的员工;满意的员工为了保持自己的“满意”,不一定愿意在公司需要改革的时候改革;满意的员工可能只是中等,并不非常出色;为了鼓励员工改变现状,企业在一定程度上需要员工的“不满”。 翰威特咨询公司也认为,最令员工满意的雇主不一定最佳。他们的最佳雇主评选,采用了另外一个考量指标:员工敬业度(employee engagement)。所谓敬业度,即员工在情感和知识方面对企业的一种承诺和投入。 盖洛普公司用Q12模型来测量敬业度,而翰威特则将敬业度分为三个层次。第一层是乐于宣传(say),就是员工经常会对同事、可能加入企业的人、客户与潜在客户,说公司的好话。某著名跨国零售商的一位员工曾经对笔者抱怨道,公司的氛围有如监狱一般:不允许员工上互联网,甚至连电脑的 USB接口都用胶带封住了;办公室里到处都是监控的摄像头;发送了多少私人邮件,必须向上级汇报。员工如此这般为企业做“形象宣传”,很显然,这家在市场上翻云覆雨的零售业巨头,在员工敬业度上的表现还达不到最低的一个层次。 第二层是乐意留下(stay),就是员工有留在组织内的强烈欲望。很难想象,一个人员频繁流动的企业会赢得员工的心,当然也有小小的例外:前面那位抱怨者的上一份工作是在某跨国会计师事务所,她表示非常怀念那里的文化,甚至愿意“吃回头草”——如果事务所的工作量能够减少1/3的话。 敬业的最高境界是全力付出(strive),就是员工不但全心全力的投入工作、并且愿意付出额外的努力促使企业成功。翰威特评选 2003年亚太地区最佳雇主时,安捷伦(中国)科技有限公司正处在裁员风暴中,却位列最佳雇主前十名。在安捷伦,有这样一个广为流传的故事,“已于3周前接到解聘书的员工谢里尔·韦斯,在正式离职前的最后一天晚上仍然在加班,直到9点半才依依不舍地离开了办公室。” March 16 北欧设计天生就对简洁的东东感兴趣,所以一直对北欧的设计是情有独钟。
在书店看到王受之的《白夜北欧-行走斯堪迪纳维亚设计》,痛痛快快就买下来了。找了几个晚上,一口气把它读完。
书还是不错的,作者是一个有名的设计师,也是一个北欧设计迷,字里行间都是对北欧设计的推崇。北欧设计为什么能在世界设计潮流中独成体系,而且出类拔萃,他有他深刻的思考:
一方面,由于地缘关系,北欧一直维持着和平、独立的发展,经济文化都有一个非常强的延续性,而且由于文化中非常注重对传统的传承,北欧各国能在一个大的设计风尚中保持住自己独特的设计个性。
另一方面,由于北欧的根植人心的民主、平等、均富的精神,北欧的设计的着眼点就是为人民的设计,而且也是普罗大众消费得起的设计。一个活生生的例子就是Ikea。因此,北欧设计成为一个全方位而且还是高水准的设计,更具有源源不断的动力和后续力量就不足为奇了。
书中讲到一个例子,让我颇为意外。说得是瑞典政府每年都为国民划出一块地,请世界著名的建筑师、设计师来进行规划,建造,以解决人民的居住问题。相比之下,我们建造的却是经济适用房。
广州能接触到的北欧设计,感觉大致就是Ikea和北欧风情吧,相当一部人并不喜欢宜家,其中不乏所谓的小资们,主要的原因,也许就是感觉家具的用料差,而且不如想象中的坚固耐用。一位女友就以压蒜器用了两次就坏为由,打破了Ikea曾经在她心目中的神圣地位。北欧风情不错,国内相当一部分产品是上海在生产了。用料恐怕又会差不少,但价格却是坚挺的,这很让人郁闷。相比之下,宜家是真正有北欧设计精神的品牌,至少,是这种精神可以惠及我等俗人的品牌。
去了宜家好多次了,各样产品都基本了然于心,然每次进入宜家,还是不由自主会惊叹:好的设计不奇怪,但是,如此全面,繁杂,众多的好设计,那真是了不起。。。
March 09 三法则刚看完《引爆流行》,很薄的一本书,关于产品,市场方面的,不过却可以带来不少其他的收获。
总结一下,流行需要很多的条件,最重要是,就是三个原则:
个别人物法则
附着力法则
环境威力法则
个别人物法则的意思就是,李宇春可以买酸奶,但我不行
附着力法则就是,你告诉我说酸奶好吃,我不一定会买来吃,但你告诉我酸奶好吃,而且你把酸奶递到我嘴边,我会吃并付钱
环境威力法则难理解一些,大致就是细节决定成败的意思吧,针对卖酸奶,还没想好什么比喻。留待二次阅读再说吧。
三者的结合,就会达到一个流行的引爆点。流行与否可能不是自己能够关心的,我倒希望的是自己的钱包可以引爆一下,至少可以有少许的膨胀。。。 成为先驱的代价(The Cost of Being First)原文作者:James R. Stoup 发表时间:Jun 27, 2005 译者:Tintin in·no·va·tion (n-vshn) 革新 n. 1. 推出新东西的行为。 2. 某些最新的东西被推出。 u·ni·form (yn-fôrm) 不变 adj. 1. 永远都是相同,不论是在身份或地位;不变的。 2. 遵守一个原则、标准或规则;始终如一。 3. 与别人相同或一致。 4. 没有改变的构造、颜色和设计 不久前有不少讨论是关于苹果与戴尔的竞争;苹果推翻微软;苹果逃避(随便选一个硬件或软件的名字)业务。各式各样的无聊谣言满天飞。然而我注意到人们似乎忘记了,苹果并不会步任何人的后尘。你记得吗?苹果是不同凡想的。 还记得软驱吗?我是不记得了。但我在历史书中见到它们。似乎它们过去一向是这么巨大。真的很大。这些小磁盘几乎没有储存空间,但它们有很酷的颜色,且风行了那么一阵子。然后某天,苹果说它们不会再使用它了。至此就没什么好说的了。 这却导致了某些人的困惑。事实上,许多傲慢的PC用户嘲笑我们为“缺少软驱”的Mac用户。当问起我们为什么愿意抛弃一项被广泛使用的技术时,答案非常简单,就是软盘过时了,而且是时候为将来做打算了。苹果因为持有这种观点而被嘲笑。 但苹果的观点是正确的。未来出现了CD-R和U盘。苹果预见到了,并定下了计划,因此能让新Mac的寿命延长一倍。最近你还能见到多少G3 iMac时代的PC?不多。为啥?因为它们被淘汰了。那些PC的制造商最远只能看到了下一个销售期,而且不会去注意未来。它们的机器是否能满足未来的需要?谁会关心啊?如果厂商都不关心,人们只会去买台更快的电脑。这就是厂商一直在做的,这也是它们认为正确的做法。那厂商现在有什么必要去改变它们的习惯呢?这个策略被除苹果以外的公司证明是有效的。苹果继续制造浪潮、做法异常、质疑现状。 苹果在许多非凡的领域带领潮流。在戴尔、IBM、宏碁、Gateway和其它企业最终跟随的领域里,都承认苹果是对的。现在回忆一下,苹果是首个在机器上加入以太网端口的。事实上,我记得在修理一台33Mhz的老Mac上看到,一个以太网端口直接内建在主板上,那是多久以前呢?15年前? 记得笔记本电脑的轨迹球吗?那又是苹果带领的潮流。当触摸板代替轨迹球,猜猜是谁的机器首先使用上?苹果。谁在市场上首先销售17寸的笔记本电脑?还是苹果。不管业界说什么才是“对的”,苹果还是继续在革新。 苹果是首个把CD-ROM作为标准装备的。之后它们继续带领潮流,CD-R成为了标准,接着是DVD-R。不要忘记还有USB。苹果又一次带领采用这项技术的潮流。相同的还有火线(FireWire),苹果在开始便说火线是如何能让USB成为软盘那样的历史。不幸的是,这比它们所想的花了更多的时间,但最终双方的人和公司都认识到使用火线的好处。又为苹果赢得了分数。 到底谁使你在电脑上用电视卡看电视?你认为是谁首先让这事变成可能?我会给你些提示,答案不是戴尔!谁最先使用WiFi?对,还是苹果。首个在消费型电脑里使用64位芯片,首个创造了掌上迷你电脑(除了Newton还有吗?),首个创造容易使用的MP3播放器和首个制造了可行的在线音乐商店。全都是苹果。 如果你还需要更多实证,只要在google里输入字串[“Apple was the first to”](苹果是最早的——请输入英文,译者按),你就能获得1280项查询结果关于它们成就的详细资料。输入[“microsoft was the first to”](微软是最早的——同上,译者按),你能得到1070项查询结果。输入[“microsoft was the first to” -xbox](微软是最早的 -xbox——同上,译者按),数量立即掉到可怜的252项。而在这252项结果中,大部分是关于在鼠标上加上滚轮和预算相关的文章。 这不是有点引人发笑吗?地球上最大的软件公司只能革新一个滚轮。因此,为苹果最新的动作感到烦躁的人请冷静下来。那些大声宣称苹果灭亡的所谓技术专家,请去吃颗(镇静)药片。苹果一贯地带来动力,为业界的相似带来灾难。它们看到了未来,并以此创造来它们的产品。所以请信任乔布斯和(苹果)公司,它们清楚它们将要做的事,因为如果过去是参照物,它们将再次证明给我们看。 但我猜如果处在尖端让你太惊慌,你随时可以去弄台戴尔。我相信如果你诚恳一点,它们或许会给你加多个软驱呢! 中文版权所有:2005 Tintin@中国苹果发烧友 September 05 iPal Podcast Bluetooth Mac Airport Treo 650...电台的复兴诸多名词放在一起,没有看到什么联系?
如果用一个字来形容它们聚在一起的感觉,那当然就是“爽”了。
iPal是一个Tivoli出品,Hery Closs设计的便携的单声道收音机,音色迷人,温暧,浑厚,据说比普通收音机能多出上下共四度音阶,也许这就是它音色迷人的原因。
Podcast。。。现在都在说播客,好事者录上自己的声音,放在网上让人下载,配合itune软件,就可以自动下载,更新,收听。每一个人都可以在为电台的主宰,成为电台的主持人,虽然,也许听众只有一个。
Airport。。。苹果的无线基站,与普通无线基站不同的是它有一个音频输入口,可以和苹果机的itune软件配合,无线播放音乐,也正是这一点,让它如此与众不同。
Mac是苹果的操作系统,Bluetooth是短距离无线通讯(好拗口,在这里,你把它当遥控的能力吧)
Treo 650,我的最爱手机。
很难明白为什么它们会联系在一起?好吧。。。
想象一下,想听国外电台?Ok,躺在床上,打开Treo 650的Salling Clicker,选台吧,迷人的音色就会从iPal弥漫出来。。。想听本地Podcast?Ok,躺在床上,打开Treo 650的Salling Clicker,选节目吧,迷人的音色就会从iPal弥漫出来。。。想听CD?Ok,躺在床上,打开Treo 650的Salling Clicker,选歌吧,迷人的音色就会从iPal弥漫出来。。。
很吊胃口,事实上,确实是让人无法自制,原理是这样的:
Treo 650通过Bluetooth,遥控PowerBook的itune软件,Treo 650解放了你的禁锢,你不用再呆坐在电脑旁选台了
itune把声音从与PowerBook相连的iPal播放出来,你不必忍受电脑音箱单调而破烂的声音了。
Airport把声音无线传输到另一个房间,你可以在客厅中和朋友在smoothJazz.com电台的背景音乐中聊天,你不必为没有气氛惆怅了。
我爱听电台,电台是如此鲜活,我不爱听CD,CD是如此单调。
生活是那样的自然。当然,主角其实是iPal。没有迷人的音色,没有那种永听不疲倦的声音,再多的电台,再有趣的Podcast,再酷的音乐,又有什么意思呢?
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